Green Tea Extract in Preventing Cancer in Former and Current Heavy Smokers With Abnormal Sputum
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2008-12-31, after 2008-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercellcarcinomaconcurrentpatient
Phrases that lowered it: extractsevereallergyabnormaltwice -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 74 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 45 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 74 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, psychiatry, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Polyphenon E in Addition to Erlotinib in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00707252 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Green Tea Extract in Treating Patients With Nonmetastatic Bladder Cancer NCT00666562 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Phase I Chemoprevention Trial With Green Tea Polyphenon E & Erlotinib in Patients With Premalignant Lesions of the Head & Neck NCT01116336 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Green Tea Extract in Treating Patients With Low-Risk Prostate Cancer NCT01928485 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Green Tea and Reduction of Breast Cancer Risk NCT00917735 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.