Green Tea and Reduction of Breast Cancer Risk
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-06-30, after 2009-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: genotyperisktherapyplaceborecent
Phrases that lowered it: healthybmikgwomenthe efficacy -
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 68 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 36 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Pilot Study of Chemo-prevention of Green Tea in Women With Ductal Carcinoma in Situ NCT01060345 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Green Tea Extract in Treating Patients With Nonmetastatic Bladder Cancer NCT00666562 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Effect of Quercetin on Green Tea Polyphenol Uptake in Prostate Tissue From Patients With Prostate Cancer Undergoing Surgery NCT01912820 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Green Tea Extract in Preventing Cancer in Former and Current Heavy Smokers With Abnormal Sputum NCT00573885 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Green Tea Extract in Treating Patients With Low-Risk Prostate Cancer NCT01928485 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.