Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy, Pemetrexed, and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Second Primary Head and Neck Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 31% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-03-31, after 2008-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: neckcarcinomahead andsquamouscell
Phrases that lowered it: erlotinibareaclinicalpemetrexedtrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 120 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 37 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 26 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1885 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 630 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nab-Paclitaxel, Cetuximab, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Recurrent Head and Neck Cancer NCT00833261 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Docetaxel, Cisplatin, and Fluorouracil Followed By Cetuximab and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT00721513 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Radiation + Cisplatin or Panitumumab in Locally Advanced Stage III or Stage IV Head and Neck Cancer NCT00820248 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Induction Chemotherapy Followed by Cetuximab and Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer NCT01467115 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Induction Chemotherapy Followed By Cetuximab and Radiation in HPV-Associated Resectable Stage III/IV Oropharynx Cancer NCT01084083 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.