Induction Chemotherapy Followed By Cetuximab and Radiation in HPV-Associated Resectable Stage III/IV Oropharynx Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagesquamous cellheartcell carcinomacarcinoma of
  Phrases that lowered it: hpvclinicaltrialviruspatients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 24579 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nab-paclitaxel and Carboplatin Followed by Response-Based Local Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage III or IV HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer NCT02258659 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Radiation Therapy and Cisplatin With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With HPV Positive, KRAS-Variant Stage III-IV Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04106362 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Cetuximab and Combination Chemotherapy in Patients With Stage III-IV Resectable Oropharynx Cancer NCT00665392 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy, Radiation Therapy, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With the Head and Neck Cancer NCT00875849 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel, Cisplatin, and Fluorouracil Followed By Cetuximab and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT00721513 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.