Nab-paclitaxel and Carboplatin Followed by Response-Based Local Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage III or IV HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpaclitaxelpatients mustpatientstage
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasejointgroupcooperativeeastern
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 209 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85789 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Paclitaxel and Carboplatin Before Radiation Therapy With Paclitaxel in Treating HPV-Positive Patients With Stage III-IV Oropharynx, Hypopharynx, or Larynx Cancer NCT02048020 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Nab-Paclitaxel and Cisplatin or Nab-paclitaxel as Induction Therapy for Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck (HNSCC) NCT02573493 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Subjects With Head and Neck Cancer Unable for Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy (NIVOTAX) NCT04282109 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemotherapy Followed By Cetuximab and Radiation in HPV-Associated Resectable Stage III/IV Oropharynx Cancer NCT01084083 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• De-Escalation Therapy for Human Papillomavirus Negative Disease NCT03944915 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.