Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Subjects With Head and Neck Cancer Unable for Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy (NIVOTAX)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapymetastaticpaclitaxelradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: mgaccordingfirst dosedrugthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20396 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 125827 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• De-Escalation Therapy for Human Papillomavirus Negative Disease NCT03944915 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Recurrent and/or Metastatic SCCHN NCT03226756 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Ficlatuzumab w/wo Cetuximab in Patients w/Cetuximab-Resistant, Recurrent or Metastatic Head/Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03422536 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Ficlatuzumab, Cisplatin and IMRT in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02277184 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Adjuvant De-Escalated Radiation + Adjuvant Nivolumab for Intermediate-High Risk P16+ Oropharynx Cancer NCT03715946 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.