Adjuvant De-Escalated Radiation + Adjuvant Nivolumab for Intermediate-High Risk P16+ Oropharynx Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastradiationpriorcell
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatedeterminedinvestigatorprotocolpk
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10902 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 12 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ficlatuzumab, Cisplatin and IMRT in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02277184 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab, Carboplatin, and Paclitaxel in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT03342911 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• The Addition of Pembrolizumab to Postoperative Radiotherapy in Cutaneous Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck NCT03057613 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Personalized Immunotherapy in Patients With Recurrent /Metastatic SCCHN That Have Progressed on Prior Immunotherapy NCT04326257 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab Plus Pemetrexed for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04107103 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.