Nivolumab, Carboplatin, and Paclitaxel in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma That Can Be Removed by Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal topatients mustcancerpatients with
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinedrugswomenasthmaaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21801 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 88725 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Induction TPN Followed by Nivolumab With Radiation in Locoregionally Advanced Laryngeal and Hypopharyngeal Cancer NCT03894891 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor for Patients With Primary Untreated or Recurrent/Metastatic SCCHN NCT03878979 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• De-Escalation Therapy for Human Papillomavirus Negative Disease NCT03944915 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant De-Escalated Radiation + Adjuvant Nivolumab for Intermediate-High Risk P16+ Oropharynx Cancer NCT03715946 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Combination With Cisplatin and Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) in Head and Neck Cancer NCT02777385 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.