A Study of XL184 (Cabozantinib) With or Without Erlotinib in Subjects With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-08-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclclung cancersmallcell lungthe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: bloodthe upperagreeaminotransferasethe past
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 421 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Study of Erlotinib With or Without Investigational Drug (U3-1287) in Subjects With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01211483 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Dose-escalation Study of OSI-906 and Erlotinib (Tarceva®) NCT00739453 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind Trial of Erlotinib/Pazopanib or Erlotinib/Placebo in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT01027598 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• (SYMPHONY) Phase 1/2 Study Targeting EGFR Resistance Mechanisms in NSCLC NCT04862780 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.