Study of Erlotinib With or Without Investigational Drug (U3-1287) in Subjects With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellnon smallnsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantinfectioneffecthistory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ASP2215 in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutation-Positive (EGFRm+) Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Acquired Resistance to an EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) NCT02495233 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• AMG 102 and Erlotinib for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01233687 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Tivantinib Plus Erlotinib Versus Placebo Plus Erlotinib for the Treatment of Non-squamous, Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01244191 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Study of Patritumab in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). (HER3-Lung) NCT02134015 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.