A Study of ASP2215 in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutation-Positive (EGFRm+) Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Acquired Resistance to an EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: dose ofthe purposepurpose oflungnsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate theto evaluatedrug
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 62.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Study of Erlotinib With or Without Investigational Drug (U3-1287) in Subjects With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01211483 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind Trial of Erlotinib/Pazopanib or Erlotinib/Placebo in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT01027598 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Selumetinib in Combination With Gefitinib in NSCLC Patients NCT02025114 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• AMG 102 and Erlotinib for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01233687 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.