Study of Patritumab in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). (HER3-Lung)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typensclccancermetastaticcell
  Phrases that lowered it: genotypewill receivedrugdiseaseher2
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 58.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tivantinib Plus Erlotinib Versus Placebo Plus Erlotinib for the Treatment of Non-squamous, Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01244191 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Study of Erlotinib With or Without Investigational Drug (U3-1287) in Subjects With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01211483 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Therapy and Subsequent Development of Mechanisms of Secondary Resistance in Patients With NSCLC NCT00997334 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of EGFR-TKI EGF816 in Combination With cMET Inhibitor INC280 in Adult Patients With EGFR Mutated Non Small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT02335944 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• MET/VEGFR2 Inhibitor GSK1363089 and Erlotinib Hydrochloride or Erlotinib Hydrochloride Alone in Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC That Has Not Responded to Previous Chemotherapy NCT01068587 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.