MET/VEGFR2 Inhibitor GSK1363089 and Erlotinib Hydrochloride or Erlotinib Hydrochloride Alone in Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC That Has Not Responded to Previous Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcellstageradiationconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticcombinationadvanced orclinicalml
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 51 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Molecular Imaging With Erlotinib and Bevacizumab NCT01047059 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of Patritumab in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). (HER3-Lung) NCT02134015 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Study of XL184 (Cabozantinib) With or Without Erlotinib in Subjects With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00596648 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin, Paclitaxel, and Bevacizumab With or Without Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Non-Smokers With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00976677 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Dose-escalation Study of OSI-906 and Erlotinib (Tarceva®) NCT00739453 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.