Ebola and Marburg Virus Vaccines

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-06-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: study vaccineconditiondaystimeadministration
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinesor equalinfluenzaparticipants
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 135 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 679 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• VRC 208: Dose, Safety and Immunogenicity of a Recombinant Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Ebola Vaccine, VRC-EBOMVA079-00-VP (MVA-EbolaZ), Administered Alone or as a Boost to cAd3-Ebola Vaccines in Healthy Adults NCT02408913 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Ebola Vaccines cAd3-EBO, cAd3-EBOZ and MVA-EbolaZ in Healthy Adults in Uganda NCT02354404 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• VRC 308: An Open-Label Phase I Study of the Safety and Immunogenicity of an Investigational H1 DNA Influenza Vaccine, VRC-FLUDNA057-00-VP, in Healthy Adults 18-70 Years Old NCT00973895 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Systems Biology Response of Ebolavirus Zaire Vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z) NCT03583606 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of HIV Adenoviral Vector Vaccine in Healthy Subjects Using Needle or Biojector Injection NCT00709605 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.