VRC 208: Dose, Safety and Immunogenicity of a Recombinant Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Ebola Vaccine, VRC-EBOMVA079-00-VP (MVA-EbolaZ), Administered Alone or as a Boost to cAd3-Ebola Vaccines in Healthy Adults
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-04-06, after 2015-03-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: controlledenrollmentor equalsafeequal to
Phrases that lowered it: participantsnormalhealthyclinical trialupper -
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 94 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1027 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 66 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 66 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1027 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 94 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ebola and Marburg Virus Vaccines NCT00605514 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial of Ebola Vaccines cAd3-EBO, cAd3-EBOZ and MVA-EbolaZ in Healthy Adults in Uganda NCT02354404 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of the Ebola Chimpanzee Adenovirus Vector Vaccine (cAd3-EBO), VRC-EBOADC069-00-VP, in Healthy Adults NCT02231866 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Systems Biology Response of Ebolavirus Zaire Vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z) NCT03583606 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Ebola Sudan Chimpanzee Adenovirus Vector Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT04041570 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.