Combination Chemotherapy and Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients Undergoing Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-31, after 2008-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: surgerystagecancerradiationevidence of
Phrases that lowered it: in clinicalcharacteristicsbodycellstimes -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 12 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19523 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5445 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase I Study of Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy With 5-Fluorouracil for Rectal Cancer NCT02270606 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Capecitabine, Irinotecan Hydrochloride, Cetuximab, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients Undergoing Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT00972881 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- S0713: Oxaliplatin, Capecitabine, Cetuximab, and RT Followed By Surgery in Pts W/Stage II or III Rectal Cancer NCT00686166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy Before Surgery Followed by Capecitabine With or Without Oxaliplatin in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT00766155 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin, and Fluorouracil Before and After Radiation Therapy and Surgery in Treating Patients With Rectal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT01263171 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.