Phase I Study of Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy With 5-Fluorouracil for Rectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyradiationcellspriortumor
  Phrases that lowered it: pulmonarychronic obstructivejointbodymm
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 107 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Chemotherapy and Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients Undergoing Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT00613080 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemotherapy Before or After Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT02363374 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin, and Fluorouracil Before and After Radiation Therapy and Surgery in Treating Patients With Rectal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT01263171 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Up-front Chemotherapy and Neo-adjuvant Short-course Radiotherapy for Resectable Rectal Carcinoma (COLORE) NCT02000050 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Maintenance Chemotherapy After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy for Distal Rectal Cancer NCT01613469 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.