Maintenance Chemotherapy After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy for Distal Rectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationchemotherapyulntumor
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalcolorectal cancerinvestigatorfixedtract
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase I Study of Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy With 5-Fluorouracil for Rectal Cancer NCT02270606 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Up-front Chemotherapy and Neo-adjuvant Short-course Radiotherapy for Resectable Rectal Carcinoma (COLORE) NCT02000050 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Combination Chemotherapy and Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients Undergoing Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT00613080 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Non-Operative Radiation Management of Adenocarcinoma of the Lower Rectum NCT02641691 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemotherapy Before or After Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT02363374 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.