Treatment of Refractory Excessive Daytime Sleepiness in Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea/Hypopnea Syndrome (OSA/HS) Using Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (nCPAP) Therapy (0249-015)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 258 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patienttreatingplacebo controlledblind placebosyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: excessivevisitproductsclinical trialsafety
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 64 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacodynamics and Efficacy of MK-7288 in Adults With Sleep Apnea (MK-7288-010) NCT01092780 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Twelve-week Study of the Safety and Efficacy of JZP-110 in the Treatment of Excessive Sleepiness in OSA NCT02348606 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Six-week Study of the Safety and Efficacy of JZP-110 in the Treatment of Excessive Sleepiness in OSA NCT02348619 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study of TAK-925 in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) Who Are Experiencing Excessive Daytime Sleepiness (EDS) Despite Adequate Use of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) NCT04091425 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• BF2.649 in Patients With OSA and Treated by CPAP But Still Complaining of EDS NCT01071876 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.