Study of TAK-925 in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) Who Are Experiencing Excessive Daytime Sleepiness (EDS) Despite Adequate Use of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hoursrandomizationmsthe subjectplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: singlecrossoverscreeningeffectparticipant
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Danavorexton (TAK-925) in Adults With Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT05180890 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Twelve-week, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Randomized, Parallel-group, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in the Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness (EDS) in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) NCT06103825 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study of a Single Intravenous Infusion Dose of TAK-925 in Participants With Idiopathic Hypersomnia NCT04091438 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Once-Nightly Sodium Oxybate for Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness and Cataplexy in Narcolepsy NCT02720744 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Pharmacodynamics and Efficacy of MK-7288 in Adults With Sleep Apnea (MK-7288-010) NCT01092780 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.