A Twelve-week, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Randomized, Parallel-group, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in the Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness (EDS) in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyprimaryplacebostablemg dl
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsafety ofparticipantsand safetymoderate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Pharmacodynamics of Lemborexant in Korean Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT05594589 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lemborexant in Chinese Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT04549168 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Lemborexant in Subjects 55 Years and Older With Insomnia Disorder (SUNRISE 1) NCT02783729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Lasmiditan on Simulated Driving Performance - Healthy Participants NCT03012334 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-group, Bayesian Adaptive Randomization Design, Dose Response Study of the Efficacy of E2006 in Adults and Elderly Subjects With Chronic Insomnia NCT01995838 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.