A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-group, Bayesian Adaptive Randomization Design, Dose Response Study of the Efficacy of E2006 in Adults and Elderly Subjects With Chronic Insomnia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartgreaterplaceboevidenceor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsagedscreeningindexparallel
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 165 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effect of 2 Dosage Strengths of Lemborexant (E2006) on a Multiple Sleep Latency Test in Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT02350309 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacodynamics of Lemborexant in Korean Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT05594589 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Lemborexant in Subjects 55 Years and Older With Insomnia Disorder (SUNRISE 1) NCT02783729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lemborexant in Chinese Participants With Insomnia Disorder NCT04549168 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of Daridorexant in Chinese Patients With Insomnia Disorder NCT06010693 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.