A Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy of Atralin (Tretinoin 0.05%) Gel for the Treatment of Rosacea
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2008-12-31, after 2008-02-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjects with18 yearsage 18diagnosedpilot
Phrases that lowered it: rosaceacomparegelvehicleefficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 217 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 61 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tretinoin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Atralin Gel for the Treatment of Rosacea NCT01125930 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Clindamycin Phosphate 1.2% and Tretinoin 0.025% Gel to Treat Rosacea NCT00823901 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- DMT210 Topical Gel in the Treatment of Acne Rosacea NCT03003104 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of a Once-Daily CLS001 Topical Gel Versus Vehicle NCT02576860 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Therapeutic Equivalence Study of Two Metronidazole 1%Topical Gel Treatments for Patients With Rosacea NCT01513863 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.