Evaluation of Tumor Response to Ipilimumab in the Treatment of Melanoma With Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainipilimumabmelanomabmsprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluateaminotransferaseindexstudy to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 10 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness in Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain, Treated With Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, Followed by Nivolumab by Itself NCT02320058 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• GEM STUDY: Radiation And Yervoy in Patients With Melanoma and Brain Metastases NCT02115139 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Randomized, Multicenter Trial of Encorafenib + Binimetinib Evaluating a Standard-dose and a High-dose Regimen in Patients With BRAFV600-mutant Melanoma Brain Metastasis NCT03911869 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Ipilimumab Combined With a Stereotactic Radiosurgery in Melanoma Patients With Brain Metastases NCT02662725 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of Ipilimumab Combined With Whole Brain Radiation Therapy or Radiosurgery for Melanoma NCT01703507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.