An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness in Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain, Treated With Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, Followed by Nivolumab by Itself

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withbrainconcurrentmelanomametastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whomgweeks beforedailydexamethasone
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 482 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Low Dose Ipilimumab With Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain NCT03873818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of Ipilimumab Combined With Whole Brain Radiation Therapy or Radiosurgery for Melanoma NCT01703507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety and Efficacy of Patients With Four and More Symptomatic Brain Metastases of Melanoma NCT03728465 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab Plus Bevacizumab for Treatment of Brain Metastases in Metastatic Melanoma or Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02681549 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating the Safety & Efficacy of Intra-Tumoral Ipilimumab in Combination With Intra-venous Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02857569 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.