Low Dose Ipilimumab With Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectpriorheartto determineuln
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantstudy drugweeks beforelesions
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 785 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8793 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 30429 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab and Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Melanoma or Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Brain Metastases NCT02858869 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of Ipilimumab Combined With Whole Brain Radiation Therapy or Radiosurgery for Melanoma NCT01703507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Anti-CD137 and Anti-CTLA-4 Monoclonal Antibody in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT04121676 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating the Safety & Efficacy of Intra-Tumoral Ipilimumab in Combination With Intra-venous Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02857569 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness in Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain, Treated With Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, Followed by Nivolumab by Itself NCT02320058 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.