Pembrolizumab and Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Melanoma or Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lunglung cancernsclcsmall cellnon small
  Phrases that lowered it: ulnhepatitishcvinfluenzaaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 317 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3438 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Low Dose Ipilimumab With Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain NCT03873818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Stereotactic Radiosurgery and Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors With NovoTTF-200M for the Treatment of Melanoma Brain Metastases NCT05341349 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy or Non-Stereotactic Wide-Field Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02444741 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Skin Cancer NCT02964559 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Recurrent or Metastatic Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT03072160 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.