A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) and Xeloda (Capecitabine) as Maintenance Treatment in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-05-31, after 2008-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerbevacizumabcolorectalprogression
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andmgsafety ofthe efficacy -
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 130 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 178 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14256 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5190 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Xeloda (Capecitabine) in Combination With Avastin + Short Course Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00642603 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) With XELOX or FOLFOX in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and Disease Progression Under First-line FOLFIRI and Avastin NCT01077739 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- OPAL Study: A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Combination With FOLFOXIRI in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00940303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) + Xeloda (Capecitabine)as Maintenance Therapy in Patients With HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00929240 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- A Phase III Study of 2nd-line XELIRI ± Bevacizumab vs. FOLFIRI ± Bevacizumab in mCRC NCT01996306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.