A Phase III Study of 2nd-line XELIRI ± Bevacizumab vs. FOLFIRI ± Bevacizumab in mCRC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: enrollmentdlheartcolorectalmyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforedrugsgastrointestinallaboratorymellitus
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 100396 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16426 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Comparison of mXELIRI Regimen and FOLFIRI Combined Bevacizumab Regimen as First-line Chemotherapy Regimen for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04247984 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study Combining mFOLFOX6 With Tivozanib or Bevacizumab in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as First Line Therapy NCT01478594 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Sequential and Concurrent FOLFOXIRI/Bevacizumab Regimens Versus FOLFOX/Bevacizumab in First-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01765582 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study to Compare the Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of HLX04 and Bevacizumab Combined XELOX or mFOLFOX6 in the First-line Treatment of mCRC NCT03511963 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.