A Comparison of mXELIRI Regimen and FOLFIRI Combined Bevacizumab Regimen as First-line Chemotherapy Regimen for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-01-31, after 2018-05-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpriorheartulnrandomization
Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetyor equalopenequal to -
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 30 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 26 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 167673 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 26516 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, fluorouracil, irinotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Maintenance Bevacizumab Only or Bevacizumab Plus Metronomic Chemotherapy in Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT02271464 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Sequential and Concurrent FOLFOXIRI/Bevacizumab Regimens Versus FOLFOX/Bevacizumab in First-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01765582 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
- A Phase III Study of 2nd-line XELIRI ± Bevacizumab vs. FOLFIRI ± Bevacizumab in mCRC NCT01996306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Stivant (AryoGen Bevacizumab) Versus Avastin in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03288987 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.