Sequential and Concurrent FOLFOXIRI/Bevacizumab Regimens Versus FOLFOX/Bevacizumab in First-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bevacizumabrandomizationmetastaticheartprior to
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsprostateand safetyefficacy andopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 96390 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 605 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 223 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25348 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Comparison of mXELIRI Regimen and FOLFIRI Combined Bevacizumab Regimen as First-line Chemotherapy Regimen for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04247984 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study in Second Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01183780 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Stivant (AryoGen Bevacizumab) Versus Avastin in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03288987 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) With XELOX or FOLFOX in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and Disease Progression Under First-line FOLFIRI and Avastin NCT01077739 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study Bevacizumab Biosimilar (BEVZ92) Versus Bevacizumab (AVASTIN®) in First-line Treatment mCRC Patients NCT02069704 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.