A Study Combining mFOLFOX6 With Tivozanib or Bevacizumab in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as First Line Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-01-31, after 2011-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticboweltransplantabdominal
Phrases that lowered it: administrationsubjectswithin weekssubjectskin -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 11 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18855 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3472 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, tivozanib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of MEGF0444A Dosed to Progression in Combination With Bevacizumab and mFOLFOX-6 in Participants With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01399684 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Stivant (AryoGen Bevacizumab) Versus Avastin in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03288987 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Phase III Study of 2nd-line XELIRI ± Bevacizumab vs. FOLFIRI ± Bevacizumab in mCRC NCT01996306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- A Comparison of mXELIRI Regimen and FOLFIRI Combined Bevacizumab Regimen as First-line Chemotherapy Regimen for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04247984 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.