A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of MEGF0444A Dosed to Progression in Combination With Bevacizumab and mFOLFOX-6 in Participants With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceror equalequal todiseasestudy treatment
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsthe efficacyefficacy andand safety
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8126 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PAVES: Pegfilgrastim Anti-vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) Evaluation Study NCT00911170 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Vanucizumab and FOLFOX With Bevacizumab and FOLFOX in Participants With Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02141295 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• A Study Combining mFOLFOX6 With Tivozanib or Bevacizumab in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as First Line Therapy NCT01478594 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI Alone Versus FOLFIRI Plus Bevacizumab Versus FOLFIRI Plus E7820 as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01133990 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Optimal Maintenance Therapy With Bevacizumab After Induction in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (CRC) NCT00973609 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.