FOLFIRI Alone Versus FOLFIRI Plus Bevacizumab Versus FOLFIRI Plus E7820 as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartpatients mustpatientlowrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: advancedsolidreceivedmaleopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6770 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 34084 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Irinotecan Plus E7820 Versus FOLFIRI in Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colon or Rectal Cancer NCT01347645 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Napabucasin (BBI-608) in Combination With FOLFIRI in Adult Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02753127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Optimal Maintenance Therapy With Bevacizumab After Induction in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (CRC) NCT00973609 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Axitinib Monotherapy With Early Dynamic Contrast Enhanced Ultrasound Monitoring in Chemorefractory Third Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04355156 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Curative Resectability of Not Optimally Resectable Liver and/or Lung Metastases From Colorectal Carcinoma (CRC) Under Intensified Chemotherapy NCT01126866 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.