Optimal Maintenance Therapy With Bevacizumab After Induction in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (CRC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagesubjectcancerregistrationlung
  Phrases that lowered it: accordingthe efficacyweekspatientsopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12233 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 53689 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Curative Resectability of Not Optimally Resectable Liver and/or Lung Metastases From Colorectal Carcinoma (CRC) Under Intensified Chemotherapy NCT01126866 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• FOLFIRI Alone Versus FOLFIRI Plus Bevacizumab Versus FOLFIRI Plus E7820 as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01133990 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Panitumumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (VOLFI) NCT01328171 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI + Cetuximab + Avelumab RAS Wild-type CRC NCT05217069 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT00875771 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.