FOLFIRI + Cetuximab + Avelumab RAS Wild-type CRC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapytypecancermetastatictransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningbowelcolitisinvestigate theto investigate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 133888 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18126 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Optimal Anti-EGFR Treatment of mCRC Patients With Low-Frequency RAS Mutation NCT04034173 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab and Cetuximab in Combination With FOLFOX in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer - The Phase II AVETUX-CRC Trial. NCT03174405 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (RAS-wildtype) After Response to First-line Treatment With FOLFIR Plus Cetuximab NCT02934529 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Panitumumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (VOLFI) NCT01328171 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• AVELUMAB and CETUXIMAB and mFOLFOXIRI as Initial Therapy for Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT04513951 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.