Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (RAS-wildtype) After Response to First-line Treatment With FOLFIR Plus Cetuximab
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-01-30, after 2015-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bevacizumabcancerchemotherapydiseasebowel
Phrases that lowered it: accordingmonths beforethe efficacyadministrationthe study -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 136907 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 55 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 136907 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17474 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, cetuximab, fluorouracil, irinotecan, leucovorin, regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- FOLFIRI + Cetuximab + Avelumab RAS Wild-type CRC NCT05217069 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Erbitux MEtastatic Colorectal Cancer Strategy Study NCT02484833 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- First Line mFOLFOXIRI + PANITUMUMAB vs mFOLFOX + PANITUMUMAB IN RAS AND BRAF WT METASTATIC COLORECTAL CANCER PATIENTS NCT03231722 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Cetuximab Standard or Dose Escalation in First Line Colorectal Cancer NCT01251536 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Optimal Anti-EGFR Treatment of mCRC Patients With Low-Frequency RAS Mutation NCT04034173 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.