AVELUMAB and CETUXIMAB and mFOLFOXIRI as Initial Therapy for Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersubjectsyndromebowelsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmamaleaccordingtrialaged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 183561 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 24509 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• FOLFOXIRI + Bev + Atezo vs FOLFOXIRI + Bev as First-line Treatment of Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT03721653 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Avelumab and Cetuximab in Combination With FOLFOX in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer - The Phase II AVETUX-CRC Trial. NCT03174405 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study MK-3475 With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced GI Cancers NCT02268825 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Study of Pembrolizumab, Binimetinib, and Bevacizumab in Patients With Refractory Colorectal Cancer NCT03475004 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Cetuximab in Third Line for Mutant APC, TP53 and RAS Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04853043 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.