Phase I Study MK-3475 With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced GI Cancers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomametastaticsubjectpancreatic
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressuredayfirst dosescreeningdose of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 49 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 142 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 620 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Pembrolizumab in Combination With Chemotherapy for Patients With Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT02375672 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• AVELUMAB and CETUXIMAB and mFOLFOXIRI as Initial Therapy for Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT04513951 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Modified FOLFOX Plus/Minus Nivolumab and Ipilimumab vs. FLOT Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Previously Untreated Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT03647969 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Azacitidine in Subjects With Chemo-refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02260440 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Trial of mFOLFOX6 + Trastuzumab + Avelumab in Gastric and Esophageal Adenocarcinomas NCT03783936 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.