PAVES: Pegfilgrastim Anti-vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) Evaluation Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painchemotherapybevacizumabplacebo controlledto randomization
  Phrases that lowered it: the effectcycleeffect ofparticipantsday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 165 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 15081 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Napabucasin (BBI-608) in Combination With FOLFIRI in Adult Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02753127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study of NUC-3373 in Combination With Other Agents in Patients With Colorectal Cancer NCT05678257 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of MEGF0444A Dosed to Progression in Combination With Bevacizumab and mFOLFOX-6 in Participants With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01399684 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI Alone Versus FOLFIRI Plus Bevacizumab Versus FOLFIRI Plus E7820 as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01133990 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Olaparib (MK-7339) With or Without Bevacizumab Compared to Bevacizumab With a Fluoropyrimidine in Unresectable or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (CRC) (MK-7339-003/LYNK-003) NCT04456699 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.