Efficacy and Safety of Olaparib (MK-7339) With or Without Bevacizumab Compared to Bevacizumab With a Fluoropyrimidine in Unresectable or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (CRC) (MK-7339-003/LYNK-003)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colorectalamlcancerinductionoxaliplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andblood pressureparticipant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1293 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 241724 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 29704 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Onvansertib in Combination With FOLFIRI and Bevacizumab for Second Line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With a KRAS Mutation NCT03829410 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study of Napabucasin (BBI-608) in Combination With FOLFIRI in Adult Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02753127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study of RGX-202-01 (Ompenaclid) as Combination Therapy in RAS Mutant Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT03597581 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Oxaliplatin/Irinotecan/Bevacizumab Followed by Docetaxel/Bevacizumab in Inoperable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer Patients NCT00952003 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI Alone Versus FOLFIRI Plus Bevacizumab Versus FOLFIRI Plus E7820 as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01133990 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.