A Study of NUC-3373 in Combination With Other Agents in Patients With Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticunresectablechemotherapycancermelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeland safetyefficacy andperioddrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 256333 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23324 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Efficacy Study of NUC-3373 in Combination With Standard Agents Used in Colorectal Cancer Treatment NCT03428958 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of Napabucasin (BBI-608) in Combination With FOLFIRI in Adult Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02753127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• PAVES: Pegfilgrastim Anti-vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) Evaluation Study NCT00911170 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI Alone Versus FOLFIRI Plus Bevacizumab Versus FOLFIRI Plus E7820 as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01133990 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Optimal Maintenance Therapy With Bevacizumab After Induction in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (CRC) NCT00973609 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.