A Study Evaluating the Safety and Antitumor Activity of IPI-504, in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cteligiblethe timelast dosestage
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelprior tojointpatients whoscreening
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Dose Escalation Study of IPI-493 NCT00724425 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1 Study of IPI-926 in Patients With Advanced and/or Metastatic Solid Tumor Malignancies NCT00761696 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• IMP4297 in Combination With Temozolomide in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors and Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04434482 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon NCT02112032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Study of the Selective HDAC Inhibitor Mocetinostat in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma NCT03565406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.