A Double-blind Study of Controlled Release OROS Hydromorphone Compared to Placebo in Patients With Chronic Osteoarthritis (OA) Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painplacebochronicjointrandomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsdailydoseevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OXN PR Compared to OxyPR to Demonstrate Non-inferiority in Pain & Locomotor Function & Improvement in Symptoms of Constipation in OA Subjects NCT00902837 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Safety and Efficacy of Osmotic Release Oral Syytem (OROS) Hydromorphone Hydrochloride (HCl) With Morphine Sustain Release (SR) in Participants With Cancer Pain NCT00803283 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Oral Osmotic Therapeutic System (OROS) Hydromorphone Hydrochloride (HCl) in Participants With Cancer Related Pain NCT01205126 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Multi-Center Actual-Use Study on the Safety of CL 108 for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Acute Pain Associated With Osteoarthritis of the Knee or Hip NCT02462850 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY2951742 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT02192190 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.