A Study of LY2951742 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Osteoarthritis Knee Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-06-30, after 2014-07-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: blind placebostabledouble blindmmpurpose of
Phrases that lowered it: kneeparticipantosteoarthritisdrugsoa -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 870 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 870 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 171 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 50709 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6602 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, galcanezumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of V120083 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT03028870 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of V116517 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Pain Due to Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT01688934 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of VM902A in Subjects With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT02847702 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of G001 in Patients With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT05007808 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Efficacy Trial of OLT1177 Gel in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Pain Associated With OA of the Knee NCT01768975 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.