Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of V116517 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Pain Due to Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painkeyprimarymay applyactive
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmoderatearthritisthe studyand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of V120083 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT03028870 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of VM902A in Subjects With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT02847702 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of G001 in Patients With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT05007808 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 2 Study In Subjects With Osteoarthritic Pain Of The Knee NCT00689273 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study Evaluating ADL5859 and ADL5747 in Participants With Pain Due to Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT00979953 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.