Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 2 Study In Subjects With Osteoarthritic Pain Of The Knee

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painpfhourspatientanalgesic
  Phrases that lowered it: indexscreeningtopicalmaleevaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 275 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 426 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of VX-150 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02660424 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of AMZ001 for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis Symptoms NCT06693648 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ACP-044 in Subjects With Pain Associated With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT05008835 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CNTX-6970 in Subjects With Knee Osteoarthritis Pain. NCT05025787 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-concept Study to Assess the Efficacy, Tolerability and Safety of a Single Intraarticular Dose of GZ389988 Versus Placebo in Patients With Painful Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02845271 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.