A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of VX-150 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis of the Knee
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-09-30, after 2015-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paincellin subjectssubjectsubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: arthritiskneejointscreeningvisit -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 65 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 65 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of X0002 Spray in Subjects With Osteoarthritis NCT02067611 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of X0002 Spray in Subjects With Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT03081806 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 2 Study In Subjects With Osteoarthritic Pain Of The Knee NCT00689273 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of IA Verapamil in the Treatment of Joint Pain in Subjects With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01645709 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Bone Health Study of SM04690 for the Treatment of Moderately to Severely Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT03727022 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.