Effect of ADC4022 Co-Administered With Budesonide on Pulmonary Inflammation in Subjects With Moderate to Severe COPD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the subjectlungtherapydiseasecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: copdmoderatesmokingasthmaproducts
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Low-dose Theophylline as Anti-inflammatory Enhancer in Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01599871 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of PT009, PT008, and PT005 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02196077 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of ION-827359 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) With Chronic Bronchitis (CB) NCT04441788 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• A Phase II Clinical Trial of TQC3721 Suspension for Inhalation NCT05292196 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• Pharmacodynamic and Pharmacokinetic Dose Ranging Study of Tiotropium Bromide Administered Via Inhalation Solution in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03118765 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.