Low-dose Theophylline as Anti-inflammatory Enhancer in Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancertherapypatientlongto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: copdasthmaparticipantfev1diseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of ADC4022 Co-Administered With Budesonide on Pulmonary Inflammation in Subjects With Moderate to Severe COPD NCT00634413 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Proof-of-Concept Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of SAR440340 (Anti-IL-33 mAb) in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03546907 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2a Study to Assess Safety, Daily Symptoms, PK, and Biomarkers of YPL-001 in COPD Patients NCT02272634 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect on Lung Function and ECG When a Combination of Tiotropium Plus Olodaterol is Administered to Patients With COPD Either From a Single Inhaler or Each Compound is Administered After Each Other From Two Different Inhalers NCT02030535 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Comparing the Efficacy of Tiotropium + Olodaterol (5/5 µg) Fixed Dose Combination (FDC) Over Tiotropium 5µg in Reducing Moderate to Severe Exacerbations in Patients With Severe to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. NCT02296138 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.